Analyst Reports

 

Economic Reports (external links)

• IMF World Economic outlook:  http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/update/01/index.htm
• Global Insight:  http://www.globalinsight.com/
• US Economic data: National Bureau of Economic research: http://www.nber.org/
• NCPA: National Center policy analysis: http://www.ncpa.org/
• Fed Stats: http://www.fedstats.gov/cgi-bin/A2Z.cgi
• Federal Reserve database:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
• Thompson DataStream: http://www.datastream.com/
• Moodys Economy.com:  http://www.economy.com/default.asp
• OECD: http://www.oecd.org/document/33/0,3343,en_2649_201185_36240225_1_1_1_1,00.html
• Conference Board reports: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/
• Econometric society: http://www.econometricsociety.org/  
• Institute Supply Managment: http://www.ism.ws/

more below.....

 

 

Table of Contents:

Analyst Reports top analysts - global economy & data company focused: Currencies: Institutions Emerging markets China: India: Brazil Russia: Germany: Hungary: Peru: Argentina: 2009 Predictions: More Reports Economic: Technology Trade:

 

 

 

top analysts - global economy & data

• Jim O'Neill - chief economist at Goldman Sacs - coined the term "BRIC"
• Nouriel Roubini - NYU economist.  RGE monitor founder.
• IDEAGlobal
• Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco
• Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital
• Stephen Roach, chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia
• Ajay Kapur, chief global strategist at Mirae Asset Securities, Hong Kong
• James Paulson, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management
• Group of Thirty counselors on financial matters, a panel that includes Treasury Secretary-designate Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers, incoming director of the National Economic Council.  Harvard University Professor Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, is also a member.
• Shelly Shetty, a senior director at Fitch Ratings in New York

 

three of the smartest forecasters on Wall Street :

• On February 13, David Rosenberg, Bank of America's North American Economist, recently reduced his 2009 and 2010 S&P 500 operating EPS forecast to $46 (from $56) and $55.50 (from $63), respectively.ⁱ Mr. Rosenberg is now forecasting an S&P 500 low of 666 based on a 12x multiple of forward (i.e. 2010) earnings.
• Francois Trahan of ISI Group dropped his S&P 500 earnings forecast from $60 to $45 on February 23. Mr. Trahan used a 13x multiple to forecast a potential market low of 585.
• On February 26, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin dropped his 2009 and 2010 S&P 500 operating EPS forecast to $40 and $63, respectively, after deducting $23 and $8, respectively, for provisions and write-downs. Mr. Kostin uses a 13.2x multiple of 2010 earnings (pre-write-downs and provisions) to come up with a year-end 2009 S&P 500 target of 940.

 

 

company focused:

• RBC Capital Markets this week lowered its growth forecasts for a number of emerging markets, including Russia

 

Currencies:

• Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at UBS, the world’s second-largest foreign- exchange trader

Institutions

• International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn

 

Emerging markets

• Alvise Marino, an emerging markets economist at IDEAglobal in New York
• Nick Chamie, global head of emerging-markets research at RBC Capital Markets
• Joydeep Mukherji, a sovereign risk analyst at S&P in New York

 

 

 

China:

• Standard & Poor's analyst Qiang Liao
• Paul Cavey, chief China economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong
• Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup Inc. in Shanghai
• reporters:  Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.net

 

India:

• Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - called the Indian "Warren Buffet"

 

Brazil

• Francisco Carvalho, head of currency trading at Liquidez Corretora in Sao Paulo
• Paulo Fujisaki, a foreign- exchange strategist at Socopa Corretora in Sao Paulo
• Flavio Serrano, senior economist of Banco Espirito Santo de Investimentos
• Reginaldo Galhardo, currency trading manager at Treviso Corretora de Cambio in Sao Paulo
• Marcelo Carvalho, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Brazil
• Tony Volpon, chief strategist at CM Capital brokerage in Sao Paulo
• Eduardo Yuki, chief economist for BNP Paribas Asset Management in Brazil
• Beat Siegenthaler, chief emerging-markets strategist at TD Securities Ltd.
• Itau’s chief economist Guilherme de Nobrega
• analyst at Morgan Stanley Jorge Kuri
• Luiz Carlos Barroso Simao, partner at LCS Consultores, an asset-management firm in Rio de Janeiro
• Ativa Corretora chief economist Arthur Carvalho
• Regina Nunes, head of S&P in Brazil
• Luiz Adriano Martinez, a portfolio manager who helps oversee 55 billion reais ($23.9 billion) at Unibanco Asset Management in Sao Paulo.
• Joydeep Mukherji, a sovereign risk analyst at S&P in New York.
• Lisa Schineller, an analyst at S&P in New York
• Goldman analyst Jason Mollin wrote.
• Januario Hostin Jr., chief equity portfolio manager at Leme Investimentos in Florianopolis, Brazil, which oversees about $35 million.
• Mario Cebrian, the head of foreign exchange trading at Banco Fibra SA in Sao Paulo
• Mario Paiva, a strategist at Liquidez Corretora, the country’s largest currency derivatives brokerage
• Moody’s Investors Service senior analyst Mauro Leos
• reporter:  Adriana Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro at abrasileiro@bloomberg.net and Heloiza Canassa in Sao Paulo at hcanassa@bloomberg.net and Carlos Caminada in Sao Paulo at at ccaminada1@bloomberg.net and Francisco Marcelino in Sao Paulo at mdeoliveira@bloomberg.net

 

Russia:

• Mikhail Galkin, head of MDM’s fixed-income research
• Troika Dialog and Renaissance Capital expect the ruble to drop at least 11 percent this quarter
• Evgeny Nadorshin, senior economist at Trust Investment Bank in Moscow

 

Germany:

• Andreas Rees, chief German economist at UniCredit Markets & Investment Banking in Munich
• Dominic Bryant, an economist at BNP Paribas in London
• Manfred Guellner, managing director of polling company Forsa.
• reporters:  Rainer Buergin in Berlin at rbuergin1@bloomberg.net; and Brian Parkin in Berlin at bparkin@bloomberg.net

 

Hungary:

• Gyorgy Barcza, an economist at KBC Groep NV in Budapest
• reporter:  Zoltan Simon in Budapest at zsimon@bloomberg.net

 

Peru:

• reporters: Alex Emery in Lima at aemery1@bloomberg.net; and Karla Palomo in New York at kpalomo@bloomberg.net.

 

Argentina:

• analysts Guillermo Mondino and Donato Guarino
• reporters:  Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at Abenson9@bloomberg.net

 

 

 

 

2009 Predictions:

 

 

NB_Top-10_Predictions_Dec_2008_FINAL

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7198110e-db4e-11dd-be53-000077b07658.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

More Reports

 

 

1. Economic Survey of the United States 2008

 

Contents | Executive summary | How to obtain this publication | Additional info Published on 9 December 2008. The next Economic survey of the United States will be prepared for 2010. An Economic Survey is published every 1½-2 years for each OECD country. Read more about how Surveys are prepared. The OECD assessment and recommendations on the main economic challenges faced by the United States are available by clicking on each chapter heading below. Bookmark this page: www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/us

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Economic:

• Global Insight:  http://www.globalinsight.com/
• US Economic data: National Bureau of Economic research: http://www.nber.org/
• NCPA: National Center policy analysis: http://www.ncpa.org/
• Fed Stats: http://www.fedstats.gov/cgi-bin/A2Z.cgi
• Federal Reserve database:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
• Thompson DataStream: http://www.datastream.com/
• Moodys Economy.com:  http://www.economy.com/default.asp
• OECD: http://www.oecd.org/document/33/0,3343,en_2649_201185_36240225_1_1_1_1,00.html
• Conference Board reports: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/
• Econometric society: http://www.econometricsociety.org/  
• Institute Supply Managment: http://www.ism.ws/

 

 

 

 

 

Technology

• http://www.idc.com/home.jhtml

 

Trade: 

• Public Citizen, a liberal advocacy group critical of the Bush administration's free-trade agenda:  http://www.citizen.org/trade/