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Investing strategies for 2009

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 15 years, 2 months ago

Table of Contents:

  1. Idea:  go for companies NOT nationalized...
    1. When to start buying?
    2. Defensive Stock picks to ride out credit crisis of 2007- '09 (?):
    3. Danger!   Areas likely to suffer
    4. Countries to look at:
  2. Links from GloboTrends:
    1. Country Analysis:
    2. Geographical Specific trends
    3. What direction is our economy heading?

 

 

 

Idea:  go for companies NOT nationalized...

it will be private companies (the few that are left)...where $$ wil be made by private investors ....

see article here:  http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/255285/how_america_embraced_lemon_socialism

 

 

 

 

When to start buying?

  1. valuations start looking cheap, early to mid 2009 is when aggressive buyers will enter the market (but must be "long risk") 

 

 

Defensive Stock picks to ride out credit crisis of 2007- '09 (?):

 

 

what to look for?

 

1.  Financial resources: 

  • low leverage:
    • new current assets as % of stock price
    • low debt to equity ratio

 

2.  Cash return to shareholders

  • dividend yield
  • stock buyback yield

 

3.  Profitable business model:

  • profit margin
  • free cash yields
  • high net income margins

 

4.  Outperforming sector

  • pricing power
  • market dominance
  • counter-cyclical profile
  • revenue visibility
  • secular story outweighing cyclical troubles.

 

 

Danger!   Areas likely to suffer

 

  • Eastern European currencies as most vulnerable,  both because of large external liabilities, large sensitivities to the global industrial cycle

 

 

 

Countries to look at:

 

In a report from the World Bank found here...

 

Exerpt:  "With stock markets and real estate prices falling down in both OECD countries and large emerging markets, it is time to look for more lucrative investments.   If you have a high-risk/high-return taste, look no further: Cuba and Zimbabwe fit the bill. Prices in both markets are low, thanks to the poor economic institutions in both countries. Yet both countries boast decent infrastructure, well-educated population (by regional standards), and, in the case of Zimbabwe, functioning judiciary. Both leaders are old: Robert Mugabe is 84; Raul Castro is 77. New leaders may be more interested in welcoming foreign investment.  The two countries came up on top of the list in a recent survey. If you have less taste for high risk, other selections include Azerbaijan, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ghana, Mozambique, and Vietnam. These economies already have taken significant steps to improve their investor attractiveness. Prices are rising, but many opportunities remain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Links from GloboTrends:

 

Country Analysis:

  1. North America 
  2. Caribbean 
  3. Latin American
  4. Asia
  5. Europe
  6. Middle East & Arab States
  7. Africa
  8. Emerging Markets

 

 

Geographical Specific trends

 

 

What direction is our economy heading?

 

see our list/ discussion of economic indicators

 

 

 

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