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current account

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 14 years, 8 months ago

 

What is the "current account"?

 

in a basic sense, its exports - imports....so, if its negative, then you are importing more than exporting...and you need to finance that deficit.

 

  • deficit:   more aggregate spending than output.    to get rid of a deficit...need to reduce aggregate spending in relation to output
  • a surplus is = more savings, than investment.

 

example: 

  • if China were to slow down, and export less...but to import even less...than they would have larger trade surplus. As Brad Setser explained here "A slowing global economy would hurt China’s exports, but in this scenario China would slow more than the world. That means China’s imports would fall more than its exports. China’s trade surplus would rise. But, you might say, the current account surplus is determined by the gap between savings and investment. Why would that change in a slowdown? Simple. China’s slowdown reflects a fall in investment (especially in new buildings and the like). Less investment and the same level of savings means a bigger current account surplus"

 

 

Balance of Payments....must BALANCE

  • if you have capital inflow...then you can run current account deficits....but if foreign capital stops flowing in....then you MUST end the deficit...which can be very painful......because aggregate spending MUST drop in relation to output.
  • The price of tradeables must rise in relation to non-tradeables...
  • so, there needs to be a REAL depreciation of the currency (a rise in prices of exports (tradeables) vs non tradeables (haircuts, ex)).
  • see balance of payments

 

Borrowing from abroad:

the total amount the US borrows from the world is defined by the current account deficit

 

"Remember this the next time someone argues that the US will be borrowing more from the rest of the world to finance its fiscal deficit: the total amount the US borrows from the world is defined by the current account deficit and the current account deficit clearly went down in the fourth quarter even as the US fiscal deficit (and the Treasury’s borrowing need) soared. That is because the rise in government borrowing offset a contraction in private investment and a rise in private savings."  Brad Setser blog

 

 

 

Trade deficit vs current account deficit:

 

see trade deficit

 

 

 

Current Account Balance - country by country

 

source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

 

Note that the USA is at the dead bottom of this list.  But, if you look harder, you find rich countries at the top, and at the bottom, but poor ones in the middle.  Is this a real trend?  What do you think are the causes of this trend?  the consequences?

 

 

 

Rank
Country
Current account balance
Date of Information
1
China $ 371,800,000,000 2007 est.
2
Germany $ 254,500,000,000 2007 est.
3
Japan $ 210,500,000,000 2007 est.
4
Saudi Arabia $ 86,620,000,000 2007 est.
5
Russia $ 78,310,000,000 2007 est.
6
Switzerland $ 72,350,000,000 2007 est.
7
Norway $ 64,070,000,000 2007 est.
8
Kuwait $ 47,500,000,000 2007 est.
9
Netherlands $ 47,310,000,000 2007 est.
10
Singapore $ 46,390,000,000 2007 est.
11
Sweden $ 37,970,000,000 2007 est.
12
United Arab Emirates $ 34,530,000,000 2007 est.
13
Taiwan $ 32,880,000,000 2007 est.
14
Algeria $ 32,050,000,000 2007 est.
15
Iran $ 28,950,000,000 2007 est.
16
Malaysia $ 28,930,000,000 2007 est.
17
Hong Kong $ 28,040,000,000 2007 est.
18
Libya $ 26,380,000,000 2007 est.
19
Venezuela $ 20,000,000,000 2007 est.
20
Thailand $ 14,920,000,000 2007 est.
21
Angola $ 13,580,000,000 2007 est.
22
Canada $ 12,670,000,000 2007 est.
23
Austria $ 12,030,000,000 2007 est.
24
Finland $ 11,400,000,000 2007 est.
25
Indonesia $ 11,010,000,000 2007 est.
26
Qatar $ 10,410,000,000 2007 est.
27
Azerbaijan $ 9,019,000,000 2007 est.
28
Argentina $ 7,438,000,000 2007 est.
29
Chile $ 7,200,000,000 2007 est.
30
Brunei $ 7,101,000,000 2007 est.
31
Philippines $ 6,351,000,000 2007 est.
32
Iraq $ 6,025,000,000 2007 est.
33
Korea, South $ 5,954,000,000 2007 est.
34
Trinidad and Tobago $ 5,378,000,000 2007 est.
35
Israel $ 5,197,000,000 2007 est.
36
Luxembourg $ 4,921,000,000 2007 est.
37
Oman $ 4,866,000,000 2007 est.
38
Uzbekistan $ 4,615,000,000 2007 est.
39
Denmark $ 4,279,000,000 2007 est.
40
Belgium $ 3,282,000,000 2007 est.
41
Bahrain $ 2,907,000,000 2007 est.
42
Nigeria $ 2,514,000,000 2007 est.
43
Botswana $ 1,973,000,000 2007 est.
44
Bolivia $ 1,796,000,000 2007 est.
45
Brazil $ 1,712,000,000 2007 est.
46
Turkmenistan $ 1,705,000,000 2007 est.
47
Gabon $ 1,552,000,000 2007 est.
48
Peru $ 1,516,000,000 2007 est.
49
Burma $ 1,427,000,000 2007 est.
50
Timor-Leste $ 1,161,000,000 2007 est.
51
Ecuador $ 1,064,000,000 2007 est.
52
Syria $ 908,000,000 2007 est.
53
Namibia $ 805,200,000 2007 est.
54
Bangladesh $ 804,700,000 2007 est.
55
Egypt $ 500,900,000 2007 est.
56
Equatorial Guinea $ 415,000,000 2007 est.
57
Cuba $ 240,000,000 2007 est.
58
British Virgin Islands $ 134,300,000 1999
59
Papua New Guinea $ 125,800,000 2007 est.
60
Paraguay $ 119,000,000 2007 est.
61
Bhutan $ 116,000,000 2007 est.
62
Nepal $ 58,000,000 2007
63
Lesotho $ 49,000,000 2007 est.
64
Cook Islands $ 26,670,000 2005
65
Suriname $ 24,000,000 2007 est.
66
Palau $ 15,090,000 FY03/04
67
Comoros $ 8,000,000 2007 est.
68
Guinea-Bissau $ -6,000,000 2007 est.
69
Tuvalu $ -11,680,000 2003
70
Kiribati $ -21,000,000 2007 est.
71
Mongolia $ -23,000,000 2007 est.
72
Tonga $ -23,000,000 2007 est.
73
Samoa $ -24,000,000 2007 est.
74
Swaziland $ -24,000,000 2007 est.
75
Micronesia, Federated States of $ -34,300,000 FY05 est.
76
Anguilla $ -42,870,000 2003 est.
77
Belize $ -43,000,000 2007 est.
78
Sao Tome and Principe $ -55,000,000 2007 est.
79
Kosovo $ -58,300,000 2007
80
Vanuatu $ -60,000,000 2007 est.
81
Sierra Leone $ -63,000,000 2007 est.
82
Gambia, The $ -71,000,000 2007 est.
83
Dominica $ -72,000,000 2007 est.
84
Central African Republic $ -77,000,000 2007 est.
85
Burundi $ -101,000,000 2007 est.
86
Cape Verde $ -132,600,000 2007 est.
87
Grenada $ -138,000,000 2007 est.
88
Solomon Islands $ -143,000,000 2007 est.
89
Cote d'Ivoire $ -146,000,000 2007 est.
90
Rwanda $ -147,000,000 2007 est.
91
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines $ -149,000,000 2007 est.
92
Guyana $ -157,000,000 2007 est.
93
Togo $ -159,000,000 2007 est.
94
Saint Kitts and Nevis $ -163,000,000 2007 est.
95
Chad $ -171,000,000 2007 est.
96
Mauritania $ -184,000,000 2007 est.
97
Uruguay $ -185,600,000 2007 est.
98
Saint Lucia $ -199,000,000 2007 est.
99
Eritrea $ -205,000,000 2007 est.
100
Antigua and Barbuda $ -211,000,000 2007 est.
101
Djibouti $ -212,000,000 2007 est.
102
Liberia $ -224,000,000 2007
103
Zambia $ -228,000,000 2007 est.
104
Macedonia $ -249,000,000 2007 est.
105
Barbados $ -254,000,000 2007 est.
106
Kyrgyzstan $ -267,900,000 2007 est.
107
Seychelles $ -272,000,000 2007 est.
108
Laos $ -285,000,000 2007 est.
109
Malawi $ -318,000,000 2007 est.
110
Niger $ -321,000,000 2007 est.
111
Cameroon $ -325,000,000 2007 est.
112
Tajikistan $ -351,000,000 2007 est.
113
Yemen $ -362,000,000 2007 est.
114
Congo, Democratic Republic of the $ -402,000,000 2007 est.
115
Mauritius $ -408,300,000 2007 est.
116
Guinea $ -424,000,000 2007 est.
117
Malta $ -424,500,000 2007 est.
118
Benin $ -441,000,000 2007 est.
119
Mali $ -446,000,000 2007 est.
120
Haiti $ -467,000,000 2007 est.
121
Maldives $ -472,000,000 2007
122
Cambodia $ -506,300,000 2007 est.
123
Fiji $ -507,000,000 2007 est.
124
Armenia $ -571,400,000 2007 est.
125
Zimbabwe $ -649,000,000 2007 est.
126
Moldova $ -694,700,000 2007 est.
127
Burkina Faso $ -706,000,000 2007 est.
128
Uganda $ -744,700,000 2007 est.
129
Mozambique $ -795,100,000 2007 est.
130
Ethiopia $ -826,800,000 2007 est.
131
Madagascar $ -890,000,000 2007 est.
132
Tunisia $ -905,000,000 2007 est.
133
Nicaragua $ -1,001,000,000 2007 est.
134
Sri Lanka $ -1,019,000,000 2007 est.
135
El Salvador $ -1,119,000,000 2007 est.
136
Kenya $ -1,147,000,000 2007 est.
137
Albania $ -1,202,000,000 2007 est.
138
Honduras $ -1,225,000,000 2007 est.
139
Bahamas, The $ -1,442,000,000 2007 est.
140
Senegal $ -1,458,000,000 2007 est.
141
Congo, Republic of the $ -1,491,000,000 2007 est.
142
Costa Rica $ -1,499,000,000 2007 est.
143
Ghana $ -1,549,000,000 2007 est.
144
Panama $ -1,577,000,000 2007 est.
145
Guatemala $ -1,663,000,000 2007 est.
146
Jamaica $ -1,830,000,000 2007 est.
147
Morocco $ -1,834,000,000 2007 est.
148
Tanzania $ -1,856,000,000 2007 est.
149
Bosnia and Herzegovina $ -1,939,000,000 2007 est.
150
Georgia $ -2,044,000,000 2007 est.
151
Lebanon $ -2,046,000,000 2007 est.
152
Cyprus $ -2,144,000,000 2007 est.
153
Slovenia $ -2,181,000,000 2007 est.
154
Dominican Republic $ -2,231,000,000 2007 est.
155
Jordan $ -2,767,000,000 2007 est.
156
Belarus $ -2,876,000,000 2007 est.
157
Iceland $ -3,189,000,000 2007 est.
158
Sudan $ -3,447,000,000 2007 est.
159
Estonia $ -3,771,000,000 2007 est.
160
Slovakia $ -3,998,000,000 2007 est.
161
Czech Republic $ -4,534,000,000 2007 est.
162
Croatia $ -4,850,000,000 2007 est.
163
Lithuania $ -5,260,000,000 2007 est.
164
Mexico $ -5,525,000,000 2007 est.
165
Colombia $ -5,862,000,000 2007 est.
166
Ukraine $ -5,918,000,000 2007 est.
167
Latvia $ -6,231,000,000 2007 est.
168
Serbia $ -6,889,000,000 2007 est.
169
Vietnam $ -6,993,000,000 2007 est.
170
Kazakhstan $ -7,184,000,000 2007 est.
171
Hungary $ -8,018,000,000 2007 est.
172
Pakistan $ -8,255,000,000 2007 est.
173
Bulgaria $ -8,530,000,000 2007 est.
174
New Zealand $ -10,230,000,000 2007 est.
175
India $ -12,110,000,000 2007 est.
176
Ireland $ -14,120,000,000 2007 est.
177
Poland $ -15,910,000,000 2007 est.
178
South Africa $ -20,630,000,000 2007 est.
179
Portugal $ -21,750,000,000 2007 est.
180
Romania $ -23,020,000,000 2007 est.
181
France $ -31,250,000,000 2007 est.
182
Turkey $ -37,580,000,000 2007 est.
183
Greece $ -44,400,000,000 2007 est.
184
Italy $ -51,030,000,000 2007 est.
185
Australia $ -56,780,000,000 2007 est.
186
United Kingdom $ -119,200,000,000 2007 est.
187
Spain $ -145,300,000,000 2007 est.
188
United States $ -731,200,000,000 2007 est.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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