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tech trends to watch

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 13 years, 1 month ago

 

Internet Trends Map

 

Here it is, posted in a panic: Web Trend Map 4. We’ll give you a week for final feedback before we send it to the printer.

Web Trend Map 4

 

 

 

 

 

Tech Trends for 2008/9:

 

 

The trendspotters at JWT are predicting:

 

  1. - The mobile device as everything hub: Mobile rules. If you're a marketer, take note, made-for-PC sites don't make the cut for a mobile experience.
  2. - Customizable mobile: Apple's iPhone made mobile applications all the rage and other smartphone makers are having to follow suit. JWT says watch for more open mobile systems and an "onslaught" of mobile apps.
  3. - Decline of email: If you've tried emailing a teen lately you may have noticed that's considered only slightly less old-school than two tin cans and a string when it comes to communications. Text messaging, social networks like Facebook and Twitter are increasingly preferred by email recipients who are ready to cry uncle under the weight of their inboxes. According to JWT, after a decade of dominance, email will gradually be eclipsed by more efficient, manageable solutions. Hear, hear.
  4. - Cloud Computing: Software, storage -- everything we needed in our desktop computers or carried around in our laptops is now in the 'cloud.' Wikipedia calls the cloud a metaphor for the Internet, an explanation that is difficult to convey to new users. I found myself trying to explain this to a friend as I was helping her set up a netbook she received as a Christmas present. She wanted to know: Was it on the computer? On a disk? On a USB drive? I just waved my hands in the air and said 'it's all on the Internet now.' That, plus the appearance of 600 of her holiday photos on an online photo site seemed to convince her.
  5. - Social networking for jobseekers: With companies handing out more pink slips than Christmas bonuses in the past month or so, jobseekers who know how to maximize the benefits of such sites as LinkedIn and others will find those social networking skills could come in handy.
  6. - Web/TV convergence: This prediction has been paraded out in one form or another for quite a while and no telling if 2009 will be its year. The convergence of entertainment media on one viewing device: It will probably take a long time to filter down to the living rooms of the nation but earlier adopters are on it.
  7. - Netbooks: I could have made this prediction after seeing how many of these mini notebook computers arrived in Santa's sleigh this year. Call it computing lite - and in the cloud. Less powerful but cheaper and way easier to lug around than full-featured notebook computers, netbooks are winning fans not only for business use but for pure fun and portability. They offer email and Web access and much of the software users might want, from word processing to photo editing, is available online. Worldwide sales are projected to reach 21 million in 2009.

 

 

 

Table of Contents:


 

see also:  telecom trendsventure capital trends 

 

 

 

 

Electronic screens as thin as paper are coming soon

 

 

Clean-tech

The Clean tech boom is one to watch.

 

 

Cloud Computing

 

More processing moving away from the user and into the ‘Cloud’, along the lines of Nick Carr’s new book The Big Switch, where he argues that computing power becomes a utility. However, Bill says “Moving everything onto the network may appeal in the rich countries of the industrialised world but offers little to rural India or sub-Saharan African countries. And there are massive security and data management issues to be solved.” But the potential benefits are “too great to be ignored.”  see also our discussion on data centers

 

 

Crowd-Sourcing :  Using the power of groups

 

Sites like Wikipedia tap into the collective knowledge of groups and create products better than individual companies can (think Encyclopedia Britannica, for example).   But the concept of group sourcing has applications way beyond simple encyclopedias.  For example we see companies tapping the collective knowledge of community to crowd-design clothing lines, pick the winner of American Idol, fund a football team, or even to predict the future.  

 

 

 

Blogging as a business

 

Yes, there is big money in blogging...see our discussion here

 

 

online video 

 

With the ultra popular site Youtube leading the way, we ushered in a new generation of online video "news" media, with the evolution of peer-to-peer video sites, we see challenges to the old media industry, and the introduction of new business models.   Definitely one to watch!

 

 

Software as service

 

Goldman Sachs prediction:  on-demand software as service market will exceed $21 billion USD / year by 2112.  

 

 

 

semantic web

 web 3.0?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Using Google to track trends:

 

Google Trends, which shows how often a particular search term is entered relative to the total search volume across various regions of the world

 

Google’s “Insights for Search”, a beta service that analyzes a portion of worldwide Google web searches from all Google domains to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you’ve entered - relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time - gives an even better overview:

 

 

 

 

Mobile Web

 

One of the more interesting trends in technology is the movement of the internet away from the computer, and onto devices that travel around with people, such as cell phones, iPods, iPhones, PDA's, and so on.  The tech community is very excited about the possibility of bringing "location-based services" in which the cell phone knows where you are, and social networking and advertising services can be delivered to you based on people and services near your location.  This opens up the possibilities for mobile advertising, mobile VoIP, and much, much more....

 

 

 

making technology affordable

Reaching the "bottom of the pyramid" is not just a socially responsible goal, but its also good business, and companies around the globe are discovering new and innovative ways to expand their marketing reach to include the new consumers in emerging markets.  Technology for emerging markets.  As technology becomes more affordible, we are seeing the mass market appeal of emerging markets coming into play.  In addition, we are seeing mobile phones gain mass market shares (more than computer based internet), which opens up the possibilities of mobile banking, and other services.

 

 

 

VoIP

 

What about VoIP -enabled cell phones on WiFi?  With VoIP, you can make free international calls (using Skype).  With WiFi, you can access for free.  So, is that the end to traditional Telecom model?  Please comment.   Also, Video over IP....

 

 

 

IPV6:

Its pretty much a standard in lots of countries now, but the US will soon follow as the MSO and wireline provider push VIDoIP and need more address space for each customer. 

 

The original numbering scheme, IPv4, is running out of addresses. It would have been out completely long ago if we had not moved to NAT and DHCP instead of locking down each device with a static global IP. IPv6 will not only allow more direct addressing space, but handles traffic much more efficiently. Especially bandwidth hogs such as streaming media. It would allow much more efficient internet broadcasting as one source stream could be tapped into at a local level rather than each stream being a unique feed. (mBone).  But IPv6 requires replacement of hardware as there is no translation between the routing schemes.  

 

 

 

Convergence of Internet and television

internet TV

 

 

 

 

 

Ultra Mobile PC's

 

Various devices have tried to fill the role between a PDA and a full-blown laptop over the years, but none has taken off.

 

But 2008 could be the year when the Ultra Mobile PCs (UMPCs) finally have their day. The first devices were launched in 2006, but they have never gone mass market - partly because of a combination of high prices and poor battery life. But towards the end of 2007 a series of new products started to hit shelves.

 

The most talked about was the Asus eee, a sub-£200 laptop about the size of a hardback book. The Taiwanese manufacturer has predicted it will sell five million of the tiny machines in 2008. The low-cost laptop runs open source Linux software and weighs less than one kilogram. To cut down on weight it does away with a hard drive in favour of just 4GB of flash memory. Whilst the storage is small, its use of flash highlights another trend of 2008.

 

Flash memory has been gradually increasing in power. For example, electronics giant Samsung recently showed off chips that could be used to make 128GB memory cards.

As a result the technology is now starting to challenge hard drives as the storage of choice on laptops.

 

Apple is even rumoured to be launching ultra-thin Macbooks using flash in 2008.

 

 

custom fabrication 

 

a revolution in the way in which products are designed and (hopefully) manufactured.  With the combination of 3d modeling and custom fabrication, there is definitely potential for business model disruption here..

 

 

Developer Platforms (for social networking companies)

 

Websites are opening up their codes to allow outside innovation.  This trend was illustrated by Facebook, who opened up their system to the developer community, and welcomed outside talent to build little business models, and allowed them to keep profits.  This spawned other sites to also welcome outside developers, and the emergence of competing standards.  Now, there is a battle brewing amond platforms, and with google promoting a common platform for all delvelopers.. this is a fast developing story, that will change...please feel free to add your comments here....

 

 

Any developer who builds an OpenSocial app, for instance, can make it work as a widget (er, gadget) on iGoogle.

 

 

 

Peer to peer

 

You may have written this off but it’s the true key to the next big wave of Hi_Def media distribution. Commercially sponsored P2P networks will be the key to distribution of HD content over the net in the next 5 years.  Asa Blum

 

 

Data Portability

Data portability is the business concept that web services should provide a method or methods for users to assert their ownership rights over the data they provide to and create within a web service.

 

 

 

Information overload 

see our discusson on attention economy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Putting computing technology in everything

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RFID into everything

 

yes, big brother will be watching!   Next? Add even more info (of the multimedia kind) to these various ‘story prepping labels’ by adding any kind of interactive code to products. Keep a close eye on (or better yet, experiment with) SMS codes, QR codes, RFID, UPCODES and so on, especially as more and more phones will come with code reading software installed. In fact, expect infinite STATUS STORY prepping (including images, videos, micro-sites) to be 'attached' to products in the years to come. A few examples:

 

 

 

 

 

Cookies

 

Cookie tracking: How Facebook could be worth $100 billion?

 

 

 

Search (human-style)

 

for more, see search engine

 

Human powered search engine Mahalo raising $20M

 

However, another human powered search engine, ChaCha, just raised $10 million more financing, so Mahalo may be seeking to hold its own.

See previous coverage here.

 

 

 

 

Personalization of the web

 

The Future of Personalized Start Pages

The difference from old-style web portals are: the user can personalize them much more (with RSS, inline email, etc), the content is more interactive and potentially much more useful (i.e. gadgets, widgets), they can be collaborative, and there is Ajax pixie dust to make it more of a desktop-like experience.

 

 

 

Taking the internet "off line"

 

One of the biggest drawbacks of web applications is that they can only be used when there is an internet connection.  Although mobile working is becoming increasingly common, ubiquitous connectivity is still a long way off.  But there are tools that are beginning to blur the online and offline worlds...

 

 

Patent "trolling"

 

 

 

Genetics - genome mapping

 

 

 

 

Local Search - Local Reviews

 

 

 

 

Old-media and New-media partnerships

 

 

 

 

 

Targeting the Hispanic Market

 

 

 

 

 

 

Outsourcing popular in tech startup community

 

There is an increasing trend even among the smallest of startup companies to outsource talent to emerging markets such as India, Argentina, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.   See more in our coverage of innovation clusters

 

 

 

 

 

Consumer Electronics trends

 

highlights from the CES (consumer electronics show in Las Vegas)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Media Disruption

 

The record companies showed us how not to deal with disruption, but it doesn't seem that many of the other big media companies have learned anything from it. Whether it's the huge amount of user-generated content that is showing up online, or just using new services to reach a new audience, this is the future of entertainment. How all this content gets onto the device you want to view it on, how you pay for it, who you can share it with and other questions are being debated now, and the answers will define our media consumption experience.*

 

Digital Music changes the music industry:   News:  Apple’s iPod aura wearing off with music labels — Last month it was Universal Music Group, this month it’s Warner Music. As record label’s contracts with Apple run out, the companies are deciding they don’t really want to be in a controlling relationship, and would prefer to see other distributors. Both Universal and Warner are shifting to a month-to-month contract with Apple that will allow them to strike deals elsewhere. If the companies have figured out yet that they don’t have to be in constant control of their own content, that might even mean a few crumbs for startups.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Web browser wars:

Sure, most people still use Microsoft's Explorer to surf the web, but other Innovations come up with new entrants, such as Mozilla Firefox, and others.

 

  [Web Wars]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why do browsers matter?

While many people pay little attention to which browser they use, the choice makes a big difference to software companies. They can use the precious screen real estate to promote their own Web services. Moreover, they can tailor their browsers to ensure compatibility with their other products.

 

Google enters the "browser wars": 

In September 2008, google announced that it would enter the fight for browser audience with the release of google "Chrome". 

 

 

Mozilla Corp., maker of the popular Firefox web browser, made $66 million in revenue in 2006 

Opera

 

Why Browsers?

Browsers have some unique attributes that could be a social graph platform.

1) Browsers are the one tool that we use across all websites.

2) Browsers (like Flock) can present an experience on top of websites: they can add additional features, drop downs, and side bars that help you to navigate information from a network of people, not just the raw information of a website.

3) Developer communities already exist around some browsers (most notably, grass roots Mozilla) and they can naturally build, extend, and improve the experiences.

 

Browser Innovations:

 

 

Domain name speculation

 

News:

 

Bubble Activity? Dot.mobi Names Sold For 6 Figures

see: techcrunch.com

14 Oct 2007

The latest Moniker domain auction was held last week, and along with the usual multi-million dollar domain buys that we’ve come to expect from these domain auctions (computer.com went for $2.2 million), another domain many people might not have heard of, let alone used saw six figure sales.

 

Dot.mobi domains we released for sale in September 2006 and are aimed at providing mobile phone specific websites. The dotMobi TLD registrar is financially backed by Google, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, Ericsson, Vodafone, T-Mobile, Telefónica Móviles, Telecom Italia Mobile, Orascom Telecom, GSM Association , Hutchison Whampoa, Syniverse Technologies, and VISA.

 

The Moniker auction saw three 6 figure Dot.mobi sales Poker.mobi for $150,000, Ringtones.mobi for $145,000 and News.mobi for $110,000. These join previous Dot.mobi sales of Flowers.mobi for $200,000, Sportsbook.mobi for $129,800, and Fun.mobi for $100,000. Other Dot.mobi domains to sell at Moniker were Email.mobi ($50,000), Podcast.mobi ($25,000) and PDA.mobi and Zipcodes.mobi ($8,000 each).

 

Whilst domain speculation is hot at the moment, it’s not unreasonable to question this sort of money going into obscure domains at a time that new mobile phones (in particular the iPhone, but with many more soon following) display full web pages as opposed to a cut down mobile versions only.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forums

 

 

 

 

Email & Chat - making them better with video & voice?

 

 
 
 
 

 

Globalization of technology

 

Yes, you come up with a great idea in the USA, and it works well...and then...someone in Germany copies it, but offers it in multiple languages (which Europeans are good at doing), and next thing you know, they are selling well all across Europe, Latin America, Asia...and are doing better than the original.  This is an accelerated product life cycle.  Recommendation...launch world wide right from the start.  Go with multiple languages.  Dont give the clones a chance to beat you at your own game.  for more, see more troubles going global (business)

 

 

HD DVD vs. Blueray

 

 

 

 

 

Trend predictions for 2009

from Business week:

 

More Screen Time at Home

With consumer spending on entertainment slowing down, consumers will happily spend more to improve their at-home entertainment experience instead of splurging on outings to restaurants, movies, and weekend getaways. That means bigger TV screens to connect to video game consoles for family rounds of Rock Band on the Sony (SNE) Playstation 3, Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360, or Nintendo (7974.T) Wii. "People have been investing in bringing these screens into their homes for years, but very few of them are fully gamed up," Anderson says. "So I think there will be a lot of spending by people to get extra entertainment mileage out of those screens at very low cost."

 

Tight budgets also will foster the proliferation of free or low-cost mobile-phone applications. Case in point: Apple's iPhone App Store on iTunes, where most applications are free—and those that aren't usually sell for $10 or less. Consumers also can get cheap online software for Research In Motion's (RIMM) BlackBerry and phones running the various mobile operating systems backed by Nokia (NOK), Microsoft, and Google (GOOG). "In terms of innovation and investment and purchase, phone applications are it for 2009," Anderson says. "Apple has already made it clear, and it's going to move out to other smartphones, and it's going to be a huge market."

 

Smartphones are not only going to be running more applications, they'll also be capable of handling ever more complex tasks. Voice recognition will become both powerful, accurate, and common among mobile-phone applications, Anderson says. "After 150 years of waiting, we'll get voice recognition everywhere," he says. Such companies as Vlingo and Nuance (NUAN) will extend their technology into many applications. "By the end of the year, more than a third of mobile users will be using voice recognition without thinking about it," Anderson says.

 

 

Personal Assistance

How will tiny cell phones handle all those new tasks? The short answer is they won't. New tools called Internet assistants will help wireless devices send demanding computing tasks via the wireless Web to other computers or to servers—off in what's known as "the cloud." "Someone is going to design a personal assistant—by that I mean a suite of services, customized just for you, that exists on a server farm," Anderson says. Mobile applications such as AroundMe on the iPhone are already pointing the way. "You already see concierge services that tell you, when you land in a foreign city, what the cultural events are in that city, and get tickets for them, and things like that," he says.

 

Anderson says the assistant technology would combine with tools that track consumer preferences to know what you need, such as preferences when you travel, all triggered by short messages from the user saying something like "business trip, Los Angeles" or "family vacation Miami." "You might have it rent you a midsize car when you travel alone on business, but when you're traveling with the family it might rent a minivan," he says. "You would say, give me a business visit, give me a fun visit, give me a family visit, and it would know what that means." And it all could be done from your mobile phone.

 

Anderson is also predicting that the wireless industry will coalesce around a new standard known as LTE, or Long-Term Evolution, as it moves to develop faster wireless connections to the Internet.

 

Mobile PCs will continue to evolve, too, Anderson says. Netbooks, the popular new class of lightweight computers, will grow into an important market segment. "If you're looking for growth rates, the strongest will be in this category, and it will be beyond debate," he says. "Until now, it's been debatable. Everyone will have one. The only question will be what color it is."

 

 

 

More topics from KookyPlan;

 

 

Early-Stage Technology: 

KookyPlan was established to help entrepreneurs identify trends in emerging technologies and to better understand the fast-changing marketplace of ideas.  KookyPlan focuses on identifying emerging trends in technologies, economies and macro market forces.  

 

 

Clean Tech:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contributors to this page:

 

contributors:

 

*(add your name here, and link to your own personal profile page)

*click here to learn more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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