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telecom trends

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 10 years, 1 month ago







Table of Contents:


 see also: tech trends to watch  , Telecom Industrytelecom innovations and business plans


Telecom Trends 


Increased infrastructure investment is coming


1.  More servers needed: data centers pop up all over the globe to support “Cloud Computing


2.  Upcoming boom in undersea fibre-optic internet cables. According to TeleGeography, there is an expected investment of $7 billion over the next 3 years.  This comes after the previous crash in /01-'02 when there was a boom in undersea investment, as experts expected internet traffic to "double every 100 days".   That didnt happen, and the market plunged.  But, experts seem to agree that this time is different.    Demand is now growing fast thanks to video and music downloads.   Bandwidth requirments are growing at about 52% a year (since 2002).   Also, there is a need for backup connections in case existing lines get cut.   Internationally, there is need for more investment in Asia (becasue bandwidth is still very expensive there, attracting competition), and in Africa and Middle East, where coverage is limited.   Another reason for optimism;  rather than investment led by startups (such as Global Crossing), we see mature Telecom players making bets that are moderate compared to their overall balance sheets.  But, there are still challenges (say the pessimists);  these are still very large investments, in an environment of heavy competition, and a market place where consumers demand ever-falling prices. 






3.  Upgrade to 3G technology.  As the US seeks to build newer and faster wireless networks, we will finally see the infrastructure get in place to support content-rich cell phone applications.  Expect many new services after the technology is in place.


4.  WiFi and mesh networks:  an alternative to traditional cellular


5.  as devices get cheaper (such as the OLPC project), we can expect to see a boom in demand for telecom infrastructure from emerging markets.   See our discussion on making technology affordable





What about VoIP -enabled cell phones on WiFi?  With VoIP, you can make free international calls (using Skype).  With WiFi, you can access for free.  So, is that the end to traditional Telecom model?  Please comment:





internet trends:


IPV6, Web-oriented Architecture, Mobility, SOA/Web Services, and Semantic Web...Mobile computing, embedded computing, mobile broadband, ubiquituous computing, semantic web, cloud computing, software as a service. It's all about immersion, accessibility and usage. We are making the "internet" available to anyone in any country via many devices, and we are able to do so much with it now. User generated content, mash ups, Wikileaks. Anytime, anywhere, anything.





Computing Trends


Trend:  computing becomes a utility, with services that can be consumed anywhere, by any device.  See our discussion on  Cloud Computing


Virtualisation:  technology that allows software running on individual servers to be moved from one data center to another.   The virtual machines may then move from data center to data center looking for where computing power is the cheapest (or greenest).  Making computing a utility. 


More processing moving away from the user and into the ‘Cloud’, along the lines of Nick Carr’s new book The Big Switch, where he argues that computing power becomes a utility. However, Bill says “Moving everything onto the network may appeal in the rich countries of the industrialised world but offers little to rural India or sub-Saharan African countries. And there are massive security and data management issues to be solved.” But the potential benefits are “too great to be ignored.”







What is most important?


Telecom executives can be as clueless as a guy who think it is attractive to wear a Bluetooth headset on a date. According to a new telecom industry survey conducted by IBM, industry execs know that change is coming but they cannot bring themselves to discard their old ways. A full 69 percent “expect business model transformation to be the primary source of value over the next five years.” Yet when asked where their priorities lie, they are, in order:


  • Network coverage (52 percent)
  • Customer reach (45 percent)
  • Customer knowledge (22 percent)
  • Customer service (16 percent)
  • Ease of use (11 percent)
  • Device control/management (8 percent)


Those numbers should be reversed. Network coverage and reach are still important, but that is how telecom companies beat their rivals in the last century. In this century, they are going to have to do better than that. Personalized services, consumer control, and ease of use will win the day.


I guess it should not come as any surprise that telecom executives (both traditional and mobile) do not put the customer first, but knowing more about their customers and what those customers want should be a priority for more than 22 percent of them. And for all the talk of open networks and open devices, the fact is that only eight percent think they should give customers more control over their communications devices. They will eventually learn that such control is no longer theirs to give.


And the knee-jerk response of 58 percent of them on how to exploit emerging advertising revenues. Partner with Google or Yahoo. Here’s a clue for any telecom manager reading this: Google and Yahoo have yet to figure out how to fully exploit mobile or voice ads themselves, so they might not be able to help you out.




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