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USA macro data

Page history last edited by Brian D Butler 10 years, 1 month ago

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US macro economic data

see also economic indicator

lots of data here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

McKinsey report:"Mapping the global capital market": http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/gcmannualreport.asp  and  http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Mapping_the_global_capital_markets_1579

 

how to read:  "basic technique that I have used in the past to estimate official flows. Rather than work off the US data – which misses official flows through London – they worked off the IMF’s data on global reserves and national data on the balance of payments of countries with large sovereign funds. They estimated the dollar share of the reserves of countries that don’t report data on the currency composition of their reserves to the IMF (they used a conservative 60% share) and the dollar share of sovereign wealth funds (40% or so)"

 

table of contents


 

Great Resource from globalEDGE:

United Nations: UNdata

This searchable statistical database provided by the United Nations Statistics Division was created to provide current, relevant and reliable statistics free of charge to the global community. The database covers a number of different areas such as Employment, Industry, and Trade. A single interface, customizable tables, filter and search options make sorting and locating specific statistical information easier.

Category: Statistical Data Sources

 

 

US Budget Deficits:

 

jm101609image001

 

there is real reason to think that under current plans, $1 trillion deficits are optimistic. Look at the graph above from the Heritage Foundation. They suggest that current policy would bring us closer to a $2 trillion deficit by 2019.  And that assumes nominal growth that is north of 3% and unemployment dropping back below 5% in reasonably short order. If you make less optimistic assumptions, the number can become much larger rather quickly. Where do we find that much money to finance that large a deficit?

 

The next graph shows commercial and industrial loans at US banks falling precipitously. Banks have (correctly) tightened lending standards, but that means that small and medium-sized businesses, which account for over 85% of all jobs, have been cut off from the life blood of growth. Is it any wonder they are cutting jobs at a prodigious rate?

 

jm101609image002

 

The next graph shows bank credit (of all types), going back to 1974. Notice that even during recessions (gray shaded areas) bank lending either grows or at the most goes flat. But now we are experiencing something new: bank lending is falling. Notice the sharp increase in lending in 2008 as corporations decided to draw down their banks' lines of credit, afraid that the banks might cut back. And with good reason, as banks did exactly that.

 

jm101609image003

 

source: John Mauldin newsletter, October 16, 2009

 

 

Commercial Banks:

 

The four biggest US commercial banks – JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo – possess 64 per cent of the assets of US commercial banks (see chart). If creditors of these businesses cannot suffer significant losses, this is not much of a market economy.

 

Yet the overwhelming bulk of banking assets are financed through borrowing, not equity. Thus the decision to keep creditors whole has huge implications.

read more:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f24fc392-082a-11de-8a33-0000779fd2ac.html#

 

Bond market & Banks:

 

bank bonds are a quarter of US investment-grade corporate bonds

 

 

Financial sector:

 

we have witnessed a massive rise in the significance of the financial sector. In 2002, the sector generated an astonishing 41 per cent of US domestic corporate profits (see chart). In 2008, US private indebtedness reached 295 per cent of gross domestic product, a record, up from 112 per cent in 1976, while financial sector debt reached 121 per cent of GDP in 2008. Average pay in the sector rose from close to the average for all industries between 1948 and 1982 to 181 per cent of it in 2007.

 

In recent research, Thomas Philippon of New York University’s Stern School of Business and Ariell Reshef of the University of Virginia conclude that the financial sector was a high-skill, high-wage industry between 1909 and 1933. It then went into relative decline until 1980, whereupon it again started to be a high-skill, high-wage sector.* They conclude that the prime cause was deregulation, which “unleashes creativity and innovation and increases demand for skilled workers”.

 

source:  Martin Wolf from FT.com

 

US financial sector

 

 

USA:

  • household & non profit: 
    • assets = $64.4 trillion assets owned  (5x USA GDP)
    • debts =  $11.9 trillion
    • balance:  $52.5 trillion
      • of this $52.5 trillion...the breakdown was as follows:
        • $25.6 trillion = tangible, mostly property
        • $38.7 trillion = financial assets
  • Business sector -  Non-farm, non-financial corporate sector
    • financial assets:  $10.9 trillion
  • Business sector -  Non-farm, non-corporate sector
    • financial assets:  $2.3 trillion
  • TOTAL US private sector:
    • $52 trillion USD (in 2005)....obviously it grew more till 2008 (especially housing bubble), before falling...

 

Compare this with world (in 2005):  source : McKinsey report 2005, "Mapping the global capital market"

  • USA (private sector only):  $52 trillion
  • Eurozone (all):  $30 trillion
  • Japan  (all):  $19.5 trillion
  • UK (all):  $8 trillion
  • World total (all, including private + govt + business):  $140 trillion....owned of financial assets

 

 

  * data from McKinsey report 2005, "Mapping the global capital market"  and http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/

  * more data about the world financial system here:   International Finance markets

 

 

Data from the Economist

 

see book:

From the Economist: "One Hundred Years of Economic Statistics: A New Edition of Economic Statistics 1900-1987

 

 

 

Treasuries:

 

boom in treasury buying ...

 

 

see http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/03/04/how-a-us-financial-crises-rebounded-to-benefit-the-dollar-three-pictures/#

 

 

US Debt Levels:

 

As of this week (05/2009), total US debt is $11.3 trillion and rising rapidly. The Obama Administration projects that to rise another $1.85 trillion in 2009 (13% of GDP) and yet another $1.4 trillion in 2010. The Congressional Budget Office projects almost $10 trillion in additional debt from 2010 through 2019. Just last January the 2009 deficit was estimated at "only" $1.2 trillion. (You can see their spreadsheets and all the details at www.cbo.gov.)

 

Commentary from John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter:  "Just a few quick thoughts. This year the proposed administration plan is to borrow 50% of every dollar spent. The CBO projects than nominal GDP will grow by about 50% over the next 10 years (which is historically reasonable), but also that revenues will double, which suggests massive tax increases in relation to GDP. Interestingly, the International Monetary Fund says growth next year will be tepid at best (more below). The deficit in 2010 is almost 10% of GDP. The average proposed deficit is almost a $1 trillion average for the next ten years. Ten years from now, the deficit is projected to be $1.2 trillion. And that is if government costs do not go up and inflation only averages 1.1% for the next six years."

 

 

Total US Debt as a % of GDP

 

 

 

US economy

 

To fix the budget deficit: `First, raise the retirement age. Second, phase out income tax relief on new mortgage loans. Third, introduce a carbon tax. Fourth, introduce a national value added tax, tied to healthcare reform.´ Clive Crook, FT columnist

 

see GloboTrends:   budget deficit

 

The biggest previous change was in 2000-2001 recession, when W’s tax cuts combined with a big cyclical fall in tax revenue to produce a large swing in the United State fiscal position. A modest surplus quickly turned into a large deficit.

 

 

 

Chart

 

 

Data:

 

 

Download data View and customize data in an interactive table Data available
Download all Tables All tables   
Download this table Table 1. U.S. International Transactions 1960-present
Download this table Table 2a. U.S. Trade in Goods 1999-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 2b) 1978-1999
Download this table Table 3a. Private Services Transactions 1986-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 3b) 1986-2007
Download this table Table 4. Investment Income 1999-present
Download this table Table 5. U.S. Official Reserve Assets and Foreign Official Assets in the United States 1998-present
Download this table Table 6. Selected U.S. Government Transactions 1987-present
Download this table Table 7a. Direct Investment: Income, Capital, Royalties and License Fees, and Other Private Services 1999-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 7b) 1982-1999
Download this table Table 8a. Transactions in Long-term Securities 1998-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 8b) 1982-1998
Download this table Table 9a. Claims on and Liabilities to Unaffiliated Foreigners Reported by U.S. Nonbanking Concerns Except Securities Brokers 1998-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 9b) 1982-1998
Download this table Table 10a. Claims on Foreigners Reported by U.S. Banks and Securities Brokers 1998-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 10b) 1982-1998
Download this table Table 11a. Liabilities to Foreigners, except Foreign Official Agencies, Reported by U.S. Banks and Securities Brokers 1998-present
Download this table               Additional historical data (table 11b) 1982-1998
Download this table Table 12. U.S. International Transactions, by Area    (View area definitions)   
Download this table               Europe 1960-present
Download this table                    European Union 1986-present
Download this table                         Euro area 1999-present
Download this table                              Belgium 1999-present
Download this table                              France 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                              Germany 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                              Italy 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                              Luxembourg 1999-present
Download this table                              Netherlands 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                              Other Euro area 1999-present
Download this table                         United Kingdom 1960-present
Download this table                         Other European Union 1999-present
Download this table                    Europe, excluding European Union 1986-present
Download this table               Canada 1960-present
Download this table               Latin America and Other Western Hemisphere 1960-present
Download this table                    South and Central America 1999-present
Download this table                         Argentina 1999-present
Download this table                         Brazil 1999-present
Download this table                         Mexico 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                         Venezuela 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                         Other South and Central America 1999-present
Download this table                    Other Western Hemisphere 1999-present
Download this table               Asia and Pacific 1999-present
Download this table                    Australia 1986-present
Download this table                    China 1999-present
Download this table                    Hong Kong 1999-present
Download this table                    India 1999-present
Download this table                    Japan 1960-present
Download this table                    Korea, Republic of 1999-present
Download this table                    Singapore 1999-present
Download this table                    Taiwan 1999-present
Download this table                    Other Asia and Pacific 1999-present
Download this table               Middle East 1999-present
Download this table               Africa 1999-present
Download this table                    South Africa 1986(1999 quarterly)-present
Download this table                    Other Africa 1999-present
Download this table               International organizations and unallocated 1960-present
        
                 Addendum:   
Download this table               Members of OPEC 1999-present
        
                 Additional historical data:   
Download this table               Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa 1960-1985
Download this table               Belgium-Luxembourg 1986-1998
Download this table               Eastern Europe 1960-1998
Download this table               European Union (6) 1966-1998
Download this table               European Union (9) 1973-1980
Download this table               European Union (10) 1981-1985
Download this table               Other countries in Asia and Africa 1960-1998
Download this table               Western Europe 1960-1998

 

 

 

 

Online Data- Robert Shiller:

 

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

 

 

 

Savings rates:

 

the economy cannot be analysed in the same way as an individual business. For an individual company, it makes sense to cut costs. If the world tries to do so, it will merely shrink demand. An individual may not spend all his income. But the world must do so.  - Martin Wolf

 

For most of the past 60 years US household savings rates have varied between 6 per cent and 10 per cent of gross domestic product. In the early 1990s the savings rate began declining, virtually collapsing after 1997 to well under 2 per cent of GDP. If American households rebuild balance sheets by raising household savings rates only to the historical mid-point, their savings must rise by roughly 6 per cent of US GDP.

 

 

How this will change in 2009:

collapse in borrowing: between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2008 net lending to the US private sector fell by about 13 per cent of gross domestic product – by far the steepest fall in the history of the series (see chart). With borrowing out of the picture, private net saving – the difference between income and expenditure – is likely to remain positive for years, as households pay down debt, willingly or not.

 

see chart here:  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f5c5ba2-dc22-11dd-b07e-000077b07658.html

 

 

Will that change?

 

The latest data on the US savings rate show an uptick to 3.6%; this is the highest non-distorted (via stimulus packages or Microsoft dividends) rate in more than a decade.

Regardless of the size and nature of any stimulus, household savings are on an inexorable upwards trend for another few years. And that spells trouble for those countries and companies whose growth model is based on selling stuff to Americans.

 

We look for the savings rate to make its way back to 8% or higher over the course of the next year or two or three, rising as the unemployment rate rises. Two and

 

 

Consumption:

 

US consumers have accounted for more than three-quarters of US GDP growth since 2000 and for more than one-third of global growth in private consumption since 1990. Appreciating household assets—the “wealth effect”—enabled consumers to spend and borrow more even as they saved less. The value of US household assets rose by some $27 trillion from 2000 through 2007. Rising home values, as well as stocks and other financial assets, accounted for more than two-thirds of this gain.

 

 

 

 

Bank lending levels:

 

 

US Banks Willingness to Lend to Consumers and Demand for Consumer Loans

 

 

 

Exports:

 

Around three-quarters of output growth over the past two years came from net exports. That prop will go.

 

 

 

unemployment data

 

 

 

 

Payroll

 

 

 

 

 

 

Budget issues:

 

On January 7th the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), a non-partisan outfit, released projections that show the financial crash and the resulting recession are already wreaking havoc with America’s finances. It reckons that the budget deficit will soar from $455 billion in fiscal 2008 (which ended last September 30th) to an astonishing $1.2 trillion in the current year. At 8.3% that would be the most as a share of gross domestic product since the second world war. (The CBO does, however, see it dropping to 1.1% of GDP by 2019.)

 

the real problem is that the first baby-boomers retired last year. In coming decades spending on entitlements—the three main ones being Social Security (pensions), Medicare (health care for the elderly) and Medicaid (health care for the poor)—will drive deficits and so debt up sharply. Publicly held debt will climb from 41% of GDP last year to 54% next year, the CBO predicts, then decline (on the assumption that the recession will start to come to an end). But the CBO has previously said that, as America ages and if current policies continue, it could theoretically hit an otherworldly 400% by mid-century.

 

read more:  http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12903453&fsrc=nwl

 

Debt levels:

In 2008, US debt as % of GDP hit over 300%....astronomical!!

 

 

 

Currency:  Reserves:

 

The COFER database

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm

 

COFER is an IMF database that keeps end-of-period quarterly data on the currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves. The currencies identified in COFER are:

  • U.S. dollar,
  • Euro,
  • Pound sterling,
  • Japanese yen,
  • Swiss francs, and  
  • Other currencies.

 

 

Current Account

 

 

 

As a result of cheap money from Asia, " In America savings fell from around 10% of disposable income in the 1970s to 1% after 2005."

 

 

Consumer debt:

Consumers, in particular, were encouraged to borrow by low unemployment and interest rates and (until last year) rising asset prices. Their debt jumped from 71% of GDP in 2000 to 100% in 2007, a bigger increase in seven years than had occurred in the previous 20.

 

 

Explosion of consumer debt: (credit cards, auto loans, bank loans) over the last 20 years, rising to $2.6 trillion. Household debt, including mortgages, skyrocketed from 47% of personal income in 1959 to 117% in the fourth quarter of 2007. And from 25% of GDP in the first quarter of 1952 to 98%. (Gary Shilling)

 

 

Real Estate

 

 

see  our discussion here:  Real estate

 

 

Fed Balance Sheet - expansion

see quantitative easing

 

020609b

 

note:  big part of expansion = currency swap lines wiht foreign central banks

 

 

Foreign investors in  US :

 

 

Foreign Holdings of US Securities

 

 

 

US money supply (2008)

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE

 

Graph: St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base

 

see monetary policy

....same graph, but in % terms...

Total Reserves YOY

 

comparing that previous graph vs. US dollar (basket)

 

US Dollar Index vs US Monetary Base

 

But actual money supply isnt growing that fast:

MZM Money Stock

 

MZM Money Stock

 

MZM Money Stock

 

Velocity of Money 1900-2008

 

Velocity of Money

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The GaveKal Velocity Indicator

 

Various Charts

 

 

 

Case-Shiller U.S. National House Price Index

 

Housing Starts

 

 

 

Links:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA national economic trends

 

For anyone interested in national economic trends in the USA, there is a report published by the St. Louis Fed found here:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/

  • Page 3 -- Economy at a Glance
  • Output and Growth
    • Page 4 -- Long-run View
    • Page 5 -- Short-run View
    • Page 6 -- Contributions of Components to GDP Growth
  • Page 7 -- Interest Rates and Equity Market Performance
  • Inflation and Prices
  • Labor Markets
  • Consumer Spending
  • Investment Spending
  • Government Revenues, Spending, and Debt
  • International Trade
    • Page 18 -- Exchange Rates and Trade
    • Page 19 -- More Trade, International Growth Comparisons
  • Productivity and Profits
    • Page 20 -- Productivity, Capacity Utilization, and Compensation
    • Page 21 -- Productivity, Shares of National Income, and Profits
  • Quick Reference Tables
    • Page 22 -- GDP, Final Sales, Private Inventories, Consumption, and Investment
    • Page 23 -- GDP Price Index, Employment Cost Index, Trade, Productivity, and Compensation
    • Page 24 -- Employment and Nonfarm Aggregate Hours
    • Page 25 -- Unemployment Rate, Retail and Food Services Sales, Industrial Production, and Treasury Yields
    • Page 26 -- CPI and PPI
  • Notes and Sources

Most data series used in this publication are maintained on our FRED® database.

 

 

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