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economic indicator

This version was saved 15 years, 2 months ago View current version     Page history
Saved by Brian D Butler
on January 27, 2009 at 9:58:24 am
 

Table of Contents:

  1. Leading Indicators
  2. OECD leading indicators:
    1. Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries:
    2. Baltic Dry Index:
    3. PMI -
  3. Other indicators
    1. Cardboard sales to indicate manufacturing / shipping in Brazil
  4. Trend watchers
  5. Future prediction?

     

     

     

     

    Leading Indicators

     

    Economic indicators that help to inform analysts about the direction of the economy:

     

    OECD leading indicators:

    http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=KEI

    www.oecd.org/std/cli

     

     

     

    Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries:

     

    If the spread of junk bonds over comparable Treasuries widens, that is a good indicator that bond traders are expecting a recession.   Risk premiums, or spreads, on speculative bonds in 10/2008 (the middle of the credit crisis) widened to the highest level since the great depression, indicating that bond speculators were pricing in a huge recession. 

     

    Baltic Dry Index:

    a benchmark for global freight costs (indicator that mirrors price of shipping bulk products such as iron ore, coal or grains) read more here:

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Bdiy1203

     

    read more here:  Bespoke Investments

     

     

    PMI -

    another leading index: measures the rise and fall of manufacturing in the USA....is a leading indicator of economic activity

     

    Other indicators

    Cardboard sales to indicate manufacturing / shipping in Brazil

    Cardboard sales, a key measure of economic activity, fell 4.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Brazilian Corrugated Paper Association said this week.

     

     

     

     

    Trend watchers

     see our discussion of global trends

     

    Future prediction?

    Here is a list of sites that try to predict what is going to happen next....enjoy...

    predicting the future 

     

     

     

     

     

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