Table of Contents:
Leading Indicators
Economic indicators that help to inform analysts about the direction of the economy:
OECD leading indicators:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=KEI
www.oecd.org/std/cli
Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries:
If the spread of junk bonds over comparable Treasuries widens, that is a good indicator that bond traders are expecting a recession. Risk premiums, or spreads, on speculative bonds in 10/2008 (the middle of the credit crisis) widened to the highest level since the great depression, indicating that bond speculators were pricing in a huge recession.
Baltic Dry Index:
a benchmark for global freight costs (indicator that mirrors price of shipping bulk products such as iron ore, coal or grains) read more here:
read more here: Bespoke Investments
another leading index: measures the rise and fall of manufacturing in the USA....is a leading indicator of economic activity
Other indicators
Cardboard sales to indicate manufacturing / shipping in Brazil
Cardboard sales, a key measure of economic activity, fell 4.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Brazilian Corrugated Paper Association said this week.
Leading Trend watchers
links:
ECRI maintains well over 100 proprietary indexes for 20 major economies. Our complete index database is available as part of our Professional Services, which also includes analysis and forecasting.
Global Aggregate
Future prediction?
Here is a list of sites that try to predict what is going to happen next....enjoy...
predicting the future
Links from GloboTrends
see our discussion of global trends
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