Economic indicators & leading indicators:
see also USA macro data
lots of data here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/
US government site: Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisors: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/
Table of Contents:
Leading Indicators
Economic indicators that help to inform analysts about the direction of the economy:
OECD leading indicators:
http://stats.oecd.org/wbos/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=KEI
www.oecd.org/std/cli
Example from January 2009: http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/33/21/41968144.pdf
Access to time series data and methodological information for OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) and Consumer and Business Confidence Indicators is provided by the OECD Business Cycle Analysis Database available at the OECD web site at http://stats.oecd.org/mei/default.asp?rev=2
Terrible indicator:
leading home pending sales
Commodities as Leading-Indicators:
More Indicators:
"Surprise" index:
Citigroup is one of a number of institutions that calculates an "economic surprise index", which measures data outcomes relative to consensus expectations. The real economy aftershock of the Lehman collapse generated a steady skein of worse-than-expected data. More recently, however, analysts seem to have "caught up", and so far this year the data has, in aggregate, come out in line with expectations. source: MacroMan blog
Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries:
If the spread of junk bonds over comparable Treasuries widens, that is a good indicator that bond traders are expecting a recession. Risk premiums, or spreads, on speculative bonds in 10/2008 (the middle of the credit crisis) widened to the highest level since the great depression, indicating that bond speculators were pricing in a huge recession.
Shipping as leading indicators....Baltic Dry Index:
a benchmark for global freight costs (indicator that mirrors price of shipping bulk products such as iron ore, coal or grains) read more here:
read more here: Bespoke Investments
another leading index: measures the rise and fall of manufacturing in the USA....is a leading indicator of economic activity
Venture Capital confidence indicator:
http://www.usfca.edu/sobam/nvc/pub/svvcindex.html
The Silicon Valley Venture Capital Confidence Index hit an all time low of 2.77 in the fourth quarter. (The survey ranks confidence from 1 to 5, with 1 being the lowest.) It was the fifth consecutive new low since the index began in the first quarter of 2004. The index is compiled by Mark Cannice at the University of San Francisco. He contacted 33 San Francisco Bay Area VCs and asked them about their outlook for the entrepreneurial environment for the Bay Area over the next six to 18 months.
Other indicators
Cardboard sales to indicate manufacturing / shipping in Brazil
Cardboard sales, a key measure of economic activity, fell 4.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Brazilian Corrugated Paper Association said this week.
Leading sites for Trend watchers
links:
ECRI maintains well over 100 proprietary indexes for 20 major economies. Our complete index database is available as part of our Professional Services, which also includes analysis and forecasting.
Global Aggregate
Future prediction?
Here is a list of sites that try to predict what is going to happen next....enjoy...
predicting the future
Links from GloboTrends
see our discussion of global trends
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