Economic indicators & leading indicators:
see also USA macro data
lots of data here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/
US government site: Joint Economic Committee by the Council of Economic Advisors: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/
Table of Contents:
Conference Board indicators:
Leading Indicators
Economic indicators that help to inform analysts about the direction of the economy:
OECD leading indicators:
Indicators to avoid
- leading home pending sales
Commodities as Leading-Indicators:
More Indicators:
Macro Economic Growth
- GDP
- Cyclical indicators such as the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), which correlates closely with year-on-year GDP growth
"Surprise" index:
Citigroup is one of a number of institutions that calculates an "economic surprise index", which measures data outcomes relative to consensus expectations. The real economy aftershock of the Lehman collapse generated a steady skein of worse-than-expected data. More recently, however, analysts seem to have "caught up", and so far this year the data has, in aggregate, come out in line with expectations. source: MacroMan blog
Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries:
If the spread of junk bonds over comparable Treasuries widens, that is a good indicator that bond traders are expecting a recession. Risk premiums, or spreads, on speculative bonds in 10/2008 (the middle of the credit crisis) widened to the highest level since the great depression, indicating that bond speculators were pricing in a huge recession.
Shipping as leading indicators....Baltic Dry Index:
a benchmark for global freight costs (indicator that mirrors price of shipping bulk products such as iron ore, coal or grains) read more here:
read more here: Bespoke Investments
another leading index: measures the rise and fall of manufacturing in the USA....is a leading indicator of economic activity
Venture Capital confidence indicator:
http://www.usfca.edu/sobam/nvc/pub/svvcindex.html
The Silicon Valley Venture Capital Confidence Index hit an all time low of 2.77 in the fourth quarter. (The survey ranks confidence from 1 to 5, with 1 being the lowest.) It was the fifth consecutive new low since the index began in the first quarter of 2004. The index is compiled by Mark Cannice at the University of San Francisco. He contacted 33 San Francisco Bay Area VCs and asked them about their outlook for the entrepreneurial environment for the Bay Area over the next six to 18 months.
Cardboard sales to indicate manufacturing / shipping in Brazil
Cardboard sales, a key measure of economic activity, fell 4.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the Brazilian Corrugated Paper Association said this week.
Geographic-specific indicators
China
Chinese economic data: Reading China's palm | The Economist
Reading China's palm. A new leading indicator for China's economy. May 20th 2010 | BEIJING | From The Economist print edition ...
www.economist.com/businessfinance/displaystory.cfm?story_id...
External Links
- http://www.businesscycle.com/about/
- ECRI maintains well over 100 proprietary indexes for 20 major economies. Our complete index database is available as part of our Professional Services, which also includes analysis and forecasting.
Links from GloboTrends
see our discussion of global trends
- economic indicator
blog Spread of Junk bonds (high yield bonds) over Treasuries: If the spread of junk bonds over comparable Treasuries widens, that is a good indicator that bond traders are expecting a recessio…
- bond
an excel spreadsheet, or financial table...find the annuity factor for time = T, and rate = r, and plug into this formula: PV = C * annuity factor + Future payment / (1+r)^t. 3. Consols: a uniqu…
- Carry Trade
imaginable, credit spreads, bond spreads; everything is poisoned. It's going to come to an end later this year and it's going to be ugly, even if we haven't reached the shake-out just yet. People have a Panglossian beli…
Comments (0)
You don't have permission to comment on this page.